Thursday, September 8, 2011

Chasing the One Spot

Season 87 of the NCAA will, in all likelihood, remain a two-horse race between San Sebastian and San Beda, with Letran trying to chase them down. As for the final spot, anybody can grab it from currently fourth place Mapua to last place Perpetual.

Like I tweeted, it's now all about the scheduling, so let's see where each team has.

6-7 Mapua - Baste, Beda, EAC, Arellano, JRU
5-7 Lyceum - Letran, Arellano, EAC, Beda, Baste, Benilde
5-7 Benilde - Baste, JRU, Beda, Letran, EAC, Lyceum
4-9 Arellano - JRU, Lyceum, Beda, Mapua, Perpetual
3-9 JRU - Arellano, Beda, Benilde, Perpetual, Mapua, EAC
3-9 EAC - Perpetual, Lyceum, Letran, Mapua, Benilde, JRU
3-10 Perpetual - EAC, Baste, JRU, Letran, Arellano

Both Lyceum and Benilde have to face the top three teams, whilst Mapua just finished one and will face the other two back-to-back. On the other hand, Arellano and JRU only has to face San Beda and EAC only has to face Letran.

So, let's factor in the SSC, SBC and Letran games as losses, because face it, do you really think they can beat those guys? I know anything can happen, but it feels very very unlikely...

Mapua - 6-9
Lyceum - 5-10
Benilde - 5-10
Arellano - 4-10
JRU - 3-10
EAC - 3-10
Perpetual - 3-12

That's 5 teams with 10 losses, which means the most wins you can get is 8.  That puts Perpetual virtually out of the running, unless they run the table AND Mapua ending their season on a 6 game losing skid.

The battle royale lies with those 5 teams potentially 10 losses on the docket. Those games are very very intriguing. 

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